The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, now in its third month, is sending shockwaves through global agriculture as the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz chokes off fertilizer supplies to farmers across Asia, Africa, and the Americas. The World Bank projects urea prices will rise nearly 60% year-on-year in 2026, while the Food and Agriculture Organization has warned of a potential food “catastrophe” if the disruption persists.
Fertilizer Markets in Crisis
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 46% of the world’s traded urea passes, has been effectively shut since hostilities began on February 28. The ripple effects have been devastating. In the United States, urea prices at the port of New Orleans have surged 49% since the war began, while anhydrous ammonia is up 39% compared to the same period last year, according to assessments from DTN cited by The Wall Street Journal. A survey of 5,700 farmers by the American Farm Bureau Federation found that around 70% cannot afford all the fertilizer they need, with nearly six in ten reporting worsened finances due to rising fertilizer and fuel costs, according to Fortune.
With the U.S. planting window closing by mid-May, the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report showed farmers pivoting away from fertilizer-intensive corn toward soybeans — a shift Reuters reported as a direct consequence of the price shock.
Asia’s Rice Bowl Under Threat
In Southeast Asia, the crisis is hitting tens of millions of smallholder farmers at one of the worst possible moments. Thai farmers are leaving harvest-ready rice in the ground because diesel costs make collection uneconomical, while others face the prospect of skipping the main planting season that begins in weeks. Thailand’s fertilizer reserves ran critically low by late April after the Commerce Minister warned stocks would deplete by month’s end. The government has turned to Russia to negotiate emergency urea supplies of 1 to 2 million tonnes annually.
Bangladesh and Africa Face Acute Shortages
Bangladesh faces a shortfall of around 1 lakh tonnes (100,000 tonnes) of urea ahead of the Aman rice planting season, which begins in June, according to The Daily Star. Domestic fertilizer factories have been shut since March due to the gas crisis, and two rounds of international tenders failed to attract bidders. The government plans to import 1.7 million tonnes of fertilizer from alternative sources to cover both the Aman season and winter crops.
Across Africa, the crisis extends beyond agriculture. Jet fuel prices have surged approximately 76% since the conflict began, with the continent’s 70% dependence on Hormuz-routed kerosene supplies threatening airline solvency and connectivity. The FAO has warned that even a 10% drop in fertilizer availability could reduce maize, rice, and wheat production in sub-Saharan Africa by up to 25%. The World Food Programme has cautioned that if the conflict continues through mid-year with oil above $100 per barrel, an additional 45 million people worldwide could fall into acute food insecurity.
