Gold prices edged lower on Monday as a firming US dollar and rising crude oil prices undercut the metal’s traditional safe-haven appeal, even as escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran roiled global markets. Silver, meanwhile, moved higher, buoyed by persistent industrial demand.
Gold Under Pressure Despite Geopolitical Headlines
Spot gold traded near $4,695 per ounce in early Monday trading, dipping from Friday’s close of $4,678. The decline came despite a sharp escalation in the US-Iran conflict over the weekend, after Tehran warned it would target American assets in the Middle East following US strikes on Iranian-linked tankers in the Gulf of Oman. The broader 2026 Iran war, which began in February with coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes, has seen multiple rounds of hostilities and failed ceasefire attempts.
Rather than rallying on geopolitical risk, gold has been weighed down by dollar strength and surging oil prices. Brent crude climbed above $106 per barrel, while US WTI crude rose roughly 4.5% to approach $100, according to GoodReturns. Analysts say that dynamic reflects a market more attuned to Federal Reserve policy expectations than crisis-driven buying. The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% in March, with Chair Jerome Powell offering balanced guidance that left the path ahead data-dependent. A Reuters poll of 30 analysts produced a median year-end gold forecast of $4,746, close to current levels, while more bullish calls from J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs range from $5,400 to $6,300.
Silver Bucks the Trend on Industrial Demand
Silver moved in the opposite direction, climbing above $81 per ounce after trading at $81.33 on Friday. The metal’s strength is rooted in industrial fundamentals rather than safe-haven flows. Solar photovoltaic manufacturing, electric vehicles, and AI-related data center construction continue to underpin demand, even as the solar sector itself is adjusting — PV-related silver consumption is forecast to decline 19% in 2026 to about 151 million ounces, according to a Silver Institute report cited by PV Magazine. Gains from emerging applications in grid infrastructure and high-speed electronics have partially offset that decline.
Industrial and technology applications now account for approximately 61% of total global silver demand, up from 53% a decade ago. The US Gold Bureau noted that solar energy expansion and electric vehicle adoption position silver as a strategic industrial asset heading into the second half of the year.
Diverging Paths Ahead
The split between gold and silver underscores broader market crosscurrents. Gold remains caught between geopolitical tailwinds and monetary policy headwinds, with its near-term direction likely hinging on whether the Iran conflict escalates further and how the Fed responds to oil-driven inflation pressures. Silver’s industrial underpinning gives it a different calculus — one less dependent on fear and more on the pace of the global energy transition.
