The U.S.-Iran conflict that began on February 28 has produced a paradox on Wall Street: record trading profits even as the war clouds the outlook for the industry’s most lucrative businesses. The six largest American banks delivered a blockbuster first quarter of 2026, fueled by extreme volatility across equities and fixed income markets, while oil majors and defense contractors posted surging earnings on higher energy prices and accelerating weapons demand.
Trading Desks Cash In on Chaos
JPMorgan Chase reported $16.5 billion in net income for the first quarter, with trading revenue hitting a record $11.6 billion — a 20 percent increase from the prior year. Morgan Stanley posted record net revenue of $20.6 billion, with profit rising 29 percent to $5.57 billion on the back of record equities trading. Goldman Sachs logged $5.33 billion in equities trading revenue, a 27 percent year-over-year gain and a new desk record. Bank of America saw equities trading revenue surge 30 percent, pushing earnings per share to $1.11, its highest in roughly two decades. Citigroup reported its best quarterly revenue in a decade with a 56 percent surge in year-over-year earnings per share.
Yet Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned that the conflict had already chilled the IPO market in March. “There is no question that the conflict in the Middle East slowed IPO activity a little, particularly in March,” Solomon said on the firm’s earnings call. Analysts note that trading revenues carry thinner margins than dealmaking, and the war’s suppression of capital markets activity threatens Wall Street’s core advisory business over the longer term.
Oil Majors and Defense Contractors Flourish
Shell reported adjusted profits of $6.92 billion for the first quarter, a 24 percent increase from a year earlier, as Brent crude traded near $100 per barrel — up roughly 37 percent since the conflict’s onset. BP more than doubled its profits over the same period, while TotalEnergies posted a roughly 30 percent jump. In defense, RTX Corporation reported first-quarter sales of $22.1 billion with adjusted earnings per share up 21 percent, raising its full-year guidance. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg noted “higher demand in our defense business given the increased operational tempo”.
Renewables Ride the Energy Security Wave
The conflict has also energized renewable energy firms. Vestas and Ørsted both surpassed first-quarter estimates, with Ørsted citing the Iran war as a key reason to accelerate offshore wind deployment. NextEra Energy, Vestas, and Ørsted have all reported rising profits as the war sharpened the energy security argument for clean power. Equinor’s chief financial officer Torgrim Reitan observed that the motivations driving the energy transition have “evidently shifted due to the Iran conflict, with a move away from solely focusing on decarbonization toward greater emphasis on energy security, self-sufficiency, and independence”.
For now, Wall Street’s trading desks remain the war’s clearest financial winners — though how long volatility sustains those gains, and whether dealmaking recovers, will determine whether the boom proves durable or fleeting.
